UKHSA provides some of the best COVID vaccination data each week, and the weekly report just released here:
UKHSA COVID Week 9, 2022: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1058464/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-9.pdf
Before we look at the numbers, please take note that the UKHSA Unvax rates are based on the population denominator defined by NIMS. There is controversy over this overstating the size of the Unvax population similar to how I point out the US CDC (and all local health agencies) are using a population denominator that is too low (from 2019 intercensal).
This is how UKHSA addresses that issue:
UKHSA is confident this is the better source for the reasons given above, but many dislike the fact this makes vaccines look less effective. The ONS numbers are also flawed, but then there is no agreed-upon denominator to use. I’ve tried to engage with data analysts in the UK who feels strongly about this, but none have replied nor acknowledged my requests to collaborate so far.
So, we can only show what UKHSA provides and mention the caveat that the Unvax rates may be artificially low. Even so, both the raw numbers and the 2-dose/1-dose rates are extremely valuable to see independent of the Unvax denominator issue.
Here are some key tables from the report:
This is the main summary table showing rates per age group for Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths (within 28 days and 60 days). You see 3-dose rates compared to 0-dose (Unvax) rates.
You’ll notice the Case rates for every adult age group are HIGHER for 3-dose…up to 3:1 in several categories. You can see how this seems quite unlikely. Even if vaccination does not reduce infection, the rates would be closer to 1:1. The near 3:1 ratio in those middle ages indicates the flaw many have pointed out, which is that the NIMS database overcounts middle ages due to people emigrating but still having an active NHS ID.
To what degree is this? We don’t know, but the ONS numbers swing the pendulum to the other side.
Thankfully, UKHSA gives us the raw COVID data in an earlier set of tables:
UKHSA also provides the raw vaccination data in a large Excel file here:
UKHSA Week 9 Raw Vaccination Data: https://t.co/rf6XR5VbqT
Since we have these raw data for COVID outcomes AND for vax quantities per age group per dose, we’re able to create this chart for Deaths per 100k:
Unvax-to-3Dose risk multiples range from a low of 1.67 (18-29) to a high of 4.44X (50-59)
2Dose-to-3Dose risk multiples range from a low of 2.49 (18-29) to a high of 8.13 (70-79)
Unvax rates are lower than 1-Dose and 2-Dose in every age group except 30-39
Boosted rates are roughly equal to the Unvax rate in the age group 1 level below (e.g. 50-59 Boosted = 40-49 Unvax)
…and this chart for raw Deaths by Age by Dose:
91% of 70-79 and 80+ are Boosted. Due to this, most COVID severe outcomes are Boosted persons:
More 80+ Boosted COVID deaths than all other dose levels combined at every age
70+ Boosted deaths account for 61% of all COVID deaths
More 70-79 Boosted deaths than all Unvax deaths combined
More 80+ 2-Dose deaths than all Unvax deaths combined
These aren’t terribly surprising unless you believe Unvaccinated account for the vast majority of COVID outcomes. This is what we’re told in the US, but it’s not true. Even yesterday, Arizona DHS put out a report claiming Unvax were 180X more likely to die of COVID than Boosted in January and that only 1.6% of January COVID deaths were Boosted. See below:
None visible on the 65-79 and 80+ Deaths per 100k chart
Though the UKHSA data I’m showing is from February, the January data looks nothing like what Arizona claims, nor does NYC’s data.
We have a lot more to analyze, and hopefully we can get someone from the UK to work with us on the UKHSA denominator issue.
More to come…
This is the garbage data you get from government when they have a narrative to spin. The first narrative is to show how everyone is getting the vaccine and the propaganda message is resonating. You can see this on their dashboard under azdhs.gov/covid/data/index.php#vaccination-coverage-byage You will see 104.8% for 65+ (1,325,210 vacinated / 1,264,218 people ages 65+). So if more than everyone in AZ above 65 is vaccinated then how are they showing much higher raw deaths for unvaccinated in the two graphs posted in the article? Seems to be a matching problem and assigning unknown to unvaccinated to make the tall tale of a pandemic of the unvaccinated a reality in their make believe numbers. Either the vax rate is much lower then azdhs is reporting or this report is mis/dis information to use the nomenclature dujuor. Only other possibility is a flood of unvaccinated from out of state coming to AZ to die in our hospitals.