NYC COVID Breakthroughs Updated! Part 1

@nycHealthy 2/24/22 Update

Ok, after waiting a week without explanation, we got all the way to the next weekly update. Thankfully, they updated Weekly Breakthroughs.

And the GitHub team responded finally today but not until the data were updated. They did not explain what happened over the past week.

Are you ready?

We got EXACTLY what we expected, and my predictions were basically perfect for Cases and Hospitalizations while being fairly close for Deaths.

These charts show my predictions and the actual results:

Cases

Hospitalizations

Deaths

Numerically, here were the predictions and results for Week of 1/8/22 data:

• Vaxxed % Predictions:

  • Cases: 23.19% -> 60.00% | Actual: 62.10% (+2.10)

  • Hospitalizations: 28.00% -> 53.01% | Actual: 53.18% (+0.17)

  • Deaths: 25.25% -> 54.03% | Actual: 48.05% (-5.98)

• Progression from Original to 2/10 to 2/24:

  • Cases: 23.19% -> 38.25% -> 62.10% (+38.91, +168%)

  • Hospitalizations: 28.00% -> 34.04% -> 53.18% (+25.2, +90%)

  • Deaths: 25.25% -> 29.07% -> 48.05% (+22.8, +90%)

• Net Unvax->Vax Change from Original to 2/24:

  • Cases: 192,412

  • Hospitalizations: 3,265

  • Deaths: 160

How could we get this close? It’s just a matter of finding consilience through pattern matching. Shout out to The Ethical Skeptic. These data aren’t done changing either. More will shift from Unvax to Vax, which we saw happen for Week of 1/1 in today’s update, too.

I have a bunch more charts to update and post, so I’ll publish this and create Part 2 next.