NYC CoV2 Update - 5/19/22

Vaccinated Share of COVID Outcomes

Today’s @nycHealthy CoV2 data update shows us that the trend continues.

Data: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/blob/master/trends/weekly-breakthrough.csv

The share of COVID outcomes are skewing more and more towards those considered “fully vaccinated” by @nycHealthy’s definition. These data do not include those who are partially vaccinated.”

Vaccinated share of Cases became overrepresented in early March whil shar of Deaths jumped back and forth since late February.

Share of Hospitalizations just reached its highest point on the last week shown in this chart (week of 4/23/22) and appears poised to cross the threshold soon.

All of this is despite several procedural and definitional issues that cause unvaccinated outcomes to look worse than reality:

1. All CoV2 outcomes where the person has unknown or unverified vaccination status is counted as Unvaccinated

2. @nycHealthy uses the 2019 intercensal population estimates to calculate the Unvaccinated population. The 2020 census number is much higher but does not include all undocumented immigrants. A study published in 2018 estimated there were 22.1M undocumented immigrants, which is 10.8M more than shown in the US Census. NYC’s share of this 10.8M is unknown, but we know the NYC population estimate being used for Unvaccinated calculations is wrong, because @nycHealthy is showing over 100% vaccination for these demographics: Asian, Native American, 18-24yo, and 35-44yo. This is impossible and only means the population estimates (denominators) are wrong (too low).

Another indicator of NYC data being skewed comes from other countries like England, Denmark, and Canada (Ontario). All 3 show much more stark percentages where the Vaccinated population carries a more prominent share of COVID outcomes.

Denmark

The first chart shows the # of Positives per 100k for Boosted (green), Fully Vaccinated (blue), and Unvaccinated (orange).

The 2nd chart shows the absolute (raw) number of Positive per group.

Data: https://covid19danmark.dk/#gennembrudsinfektioner

Canada (Ontario)

With Ontario, you see Boosted case rates have been higher the entire time since their granular tracking began (3/17/22).

Data: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

England

In England, Boosted case rates took over in January for older age groups and quickly accelerated for every age group except children.

Data: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1063023/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-12.pdf

Like the US (and likely every country), England has issues with determining its true # of Unvaccinated persons and has 2 distinct systems that utilize vastly different denominators (NIMS and ONS). Even with this large difference, BOTH systems have lower Unvaccinated case rates in every adult age group.